Weekly Market Update, March 6, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS This month marks one year since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began its unprecedented rate hiking journey and, although the grip has loosened, inflation still has its talons in the U.S. economy. January proved to be a headache for Federal Reserve (Fed) officials as progress on cooling inflation slowed, spending was […]
Weekly Market Update, February 21, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision is roughly one month away (March 22), and market participants will pay close attention to economic releases between now and then. Recent indicators point to an energetic economy in the U.S., leading to questions about where the Federal Reserve (Fed) will take rates […]
Weekly Market Update, February 13, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Rates continued their move higher last week as several Federal Reserve (Fed) members, including Chairs Powell, Kashkari, and Waller indicated there was potentially “more work to do.” U.S. Treasury yields were up last week, with the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year increasing 42 basis points (bps) (to 4.51 percent), 34 bps (to 3.74 […]
Weekly Market Update, February 6, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, bringing the target range between 4.5 and 4.75 percent. This marks a slowdown in pace for the Fed’s rate hikes, but Chairman Jerome Powell aimed to avoid giving any indication […]
Weekly Market Update, January 30, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The future path of interest rates is uncertain for 2023, but according to Bloomberg’s economic forecast, the average Bloomberg surveyed economist expects to see another half percent of increases in the first quarter of the year before levels remain stable through the second and third quarters. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled […]
Weekly Market Update, January 23, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) enters the quiet period leading up to its next policy meeting (January 31–February 1), the average Bloomberg surveyed economist expects to see another half percent of increases in the first quarter before levels remain stable through the second and third quarters. Inflation data has shown […]
Weekly Market Update, January 17, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The future path of interest rates is uncertain for 2023, but the average Bloomberg surveyed economist expects to see another half percent of increases in the first quarter before levels remain stable through the second and third quarters. Last week’s release of December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data—coming down 0.1 percent, in […]
Weekly Market Update, January 9, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Federal Reserve (Fed) may feel that it has been receiving mixed signals recently as the labor market continues to show signs of tightness amidst softening inflation data. Regardless, Fed officials have yet to see convincing evidence that inflation is cooling at a sufficient pace, and we will likely see more rate […]
Weekly Market Update, January 3, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s policy rate rang in the new year at a level of 4.5 percent. This came after an historic increase of 4.25 percent over the course of 2022. While the future path of interest rates is far from certain as we ease into the early days of 2023, Bloomberg […]
Weekly Market Update, December 19, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) at last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, ending its string of four consecutive 75 bps hikes. This brings the fed funds upper target to 4.5 percent. While the pace of rate increases slowed this month, Fed Chair […]
Weekly Market Update, December 12, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s next rate decision will be announced this Wednesday, December 14, and market participants eagerly await the decision. Even after the four consecutive rate increases of 75 basis points (bps), several recent economic data releases have been strong enough to convince some that rates will have to go higher […]
Weekly Market Update, December 5, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech last Wednesday in which he stated, “Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases.” […]
Weekly Market Update, November 28, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS After the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s fourth consecutive rate increase of 75 basis points (bps), the recently released minutes from the early-November meeting indicate that most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members could support dropping to a smaller rate hike when they reconvene in December. “A substantial majority of participants judged that a […]
Weekly Market Update, November 14, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised markets last week with headline—which rose 0.4 percent month-over-month against an expected 0.6 percent gain—and core—which rose 0.3 percent month-over-month (excluding food and energy) against an expected 0.5 percent gain—numbers. These results were driven by a decline in prices for used vehicles, commodities, and medical care. […]
Weekly Market Update, November 7, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Last Wednesday brought the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s latest rate decision where it hiked the policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) for the fourth consecutive time. This brought the upper target of the central bank’s rate up to 4 percent for the first time since January of 2008 during the […]
Weekly Market Update, October 31, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) heading into its November meeting this week, consensus expectations point to a likely rate hike of 75 basis points (bps). As rates continue rising, we’re starting to see more market participants voice their concern that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be going too far and/or […]
Weekly Market Update, October 24, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS With the labor market remaining tight and inflation proving stickier than expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) heads toward its final two meetings this year with expectations for additional rate hikes of 75 basis points (bps). A December hike of 50 bps is also being discussed among market participants as a […]
Weekly Market Update, October 17, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The front end of the yield curve continued its rise last week, lifted by hotter-than-expected inflationary data. The inversion between the 2- and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields expanded to 50 basis points (bps) and the spread picked up another 8 bps between the two yields. The inversion reflects the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s […]
Weekly Market Update, October 10, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The September employment report showed 263,000 jobs added during the month, which helped drive the unemployment rate down to 3.5 percent. This development further supports the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s trend of outsized interest rate hikes, as a higher unemployment rate is likely required to see meaningful cooling of inflation. As we approach […]
Weekly Market Update, October 3, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The economy continues to show signs of strength—consumer confidence, new home sales, and personal spending all surprised to the upside last week—while the Federal Reserve (Fed) actively tries to cool inflation. This Friday’s release of September employment data will be another important piece of that puzzle for the Fed leading up to […]
Weekly Market Update, September 26, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision from the September 21–22 meeting was announced. The committee hiked the policy rate by 75 basis points (bps), bringing the upper limit of the target federal funds rate to 3.25 percent, which hasn’t been breached since early 2008. This is the […]
Weekly Market Update, September 19, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Last week came with the release of hotter-than-expected August inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw an increase of 0.1 percent against expectations for a decrease of that amount. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.6 percent against expectations for 0.3 percent. We await the Federal […]
Weekly Market Update, September 12, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) enters its quiet period leading up to the September 20–21 meeting, market participants are under the impression that the most likely outcome will be a 75 basis point (bp) hike in the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s policy rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell seemed to support that […]
Weekly Market Update, September 6, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Following hawkish messaging from the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s economic symposium at the end of August, market participants look toward the next rate decision set to take place on September 21. Current conditions point to a fairly even split between expectations for an increase of 50 and 75 basis points (bps). Recent employment […]