Weekly Market Update, July 17, 2023
Report Releases: July 10–14, 2023 Consumer Credit, May (Monday) Consumer credit for May rose $7.24B versus expectations of $20.23B, following $23.01B in April. This was the smallest increase since November of 2020. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, increased 8.2 percent versus 13.8 percent in April. This data point may indicate a slowing consumer. Consumer […]
Weekly Market Update, June 5, 2023
Report Releases: May 29–June 2, 2023 Conference Board Consumer Confidence, May (Tuesday)Consumer confidence fell less than expected in May as sentiment remained surprisingly resilient during the month despite negative headlines surrounding the debt ceiling standoff. • Expected/prior consumer confidence index: 99.0/103.7• Actual consumer confidence index: 102.3 ISM Manufacturing, May (Wednesday)Manufacturer confidence fell in May due […]
Weekly Market Update, May 22, 2023
Report Releases: May 15–19, 2023 Retail Sales, April (Tuesday) Retail sales rebounded in April following two consecutive months with declines. The core retail sales figure, which strips out the impact of volatile gas and auto purchases, came in well above expectations. Industrial Production, April (Tuesday) Industrial production increased more than expected in April, in part […]
Weekly Market Update, May 15, 2023
Report Releases: May 8–12, 2023 Wholesale Trade Sales and Inventories, March (Monday) Wholesale trade sales fell 2.1 percent month-over-month in March as inventories remained flat. The inventory number came in below estimates for a 0.1 percent increase. The sales decline came in well below average expectations for 0.5 percent. Consumer Price Index (CPI), April (Wednesday) […]
Weekly Market Update, May 8, 2023
Report Releases: May 1–5, 2023 ISM Manufacturing, April (Monday) (Tuesday) Manufacturer confidence improved more than expected in April. But the index still sits in contractionary territory, due in part to a continued slowdown in new orders for the manufacturing industry. ISM Services, April (Wednesday)Service sector confidence also improved more than expected in April. Despite the […]
Weekly Market Update, April 24, 2023
Report Releases: April 17–April 21, 2023 National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, April (Monday)Home builder sentiment increased modestly in April, marking four consecutive months with rising home builder confidence. Despite the improvement, the index still ended the month in contractionary territory, signaling continued stress for builders. Housing Starts and Building Permits, March (Tuesday)Housing […]
Weekly Market Update, April 17, 2023
Report Releases: April 10–April 14, 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI), March (Wednesday)Headline consumer prices continued to show signs of slowing growth in March, with a 0.1 percent increase marking the smallest increase since last July. Despite the slowdown in inflationary pressure, inflation remains high on a year-over-year basis. Producer Price Index (PPI), March (Thursday)Headline and […]
Weekly Market Update, March 27, 2023
Report Releases: March 20–March 24, 2023 Existing Home Sales, February (Tuesday)Existing home sales surged 14.5 percent in February, breaking a yearlong streak of declining monthly sales. The rise in sales was supported by declining mortgage rates and modestly lower home prices. FOMC Rate Decision (Wednesday)The FOMC hiked the federal funds rate 25 basis points (bps), […]
Weekly Market Update, March 20, 2023
Report Releases: March 13–17, 2023 Consumer Price Index, February (Tuesday)Headline and core consumer inflation largely came in as expected in February, with both measures of consumer inflation continuing to decline on a year-over-year basis. Producer Price Index, February (Wednesday)Producer inflation came in well below economist estimates for February. Headline prices fell 0.1 percent and the […]
Weekly Market Update, March 6, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS This month marks one year since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began its unprecedented rate hiking journey and, although the grip has loosened, inflation still has its talons in the U.S. economy. January proved to be a headache for Federal Reserve (Fed) officials as progress on cooling inflation slowed, spending was […]
Weekly Market Update, February 21, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision is roughly one month away (March 22), and market participants will pay close attention to economic releases between now and then. Recent indicators point to an energetic economy in the U.S., leading to questions about where the Federal Reserve (Fed) will take rates […]
Weekly Market Update, February 13, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Rates continued their move higher last week as several Federal Reserve (Fed) members, including Chairs Powell, Kashkari, and Waller indicated there was potentially “more work to do.” U.S. Treasury yields were up last week, with the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year increasing 42 basis points (bps) (to 4.51 percent), 34 bps (to 3.74 […]
Weekly Market Update, February 6, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, bringing the target range between 4.5 and 4.75 percent. This marks a slowdown in pace for the Fed’s rate hikes, but Chairman Jerome Powell aimed to avoid giving any indication […]
Weekly Market Update, January 30, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The future path of interest rates is uncertain for 2023, but according to Bloomberg’s economic forecast, the average Bloomberg surveyed economist expects to see another half percent of increases in the first quarter of the year before levels remain stable through the second and third quarters. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled […]
Weekly Market Update, January 23, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) enters the quiet period leading up to its next policy meeting (January 31–February 1), the average Bloomberg surveyed economist expects to see another half percent of increases in the first quarter before levels remain stable through the second and third quarters. Inflation data has shown […]
Weekly Market Update, January 17, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The future path of interest rates is uncertain for 2023, but the average Bloomberg surveyed economist expects to see another half percent of increases in the first quarter before levels remain stable through the second and third quarters. Last week’s release of December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data—coming down 0.1 percent, in […]
Weekly Market Update, January 9, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Federal Reserve (Fed) may feel that it has been receiving mixed signals recently as the labor market continues to show signs of tightness amidst softening inflation data. Regardless, Fed officials have yet to see convincing evidence that inflation is cooling at a sufficient pace, and we will likely see more rate […]
Weekly Market Update, January 3, 2023
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s policy rate rang in the new year at a level of 4.5 percent. This came after an historic increase of 4.25 percent over the course of 2022. While the future path of interest rates is far from certain as we ease into the early days of 2023, Bloomberg […]
Weekly Market Update, December 19, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) at last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, ending its string of four consecutive 75 bps hikes. This brings the fed funds upper target to 4.5 percent. While the pace of rate increases slowed this month, Fed Chair […]
Weekly Market Update, December 12, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s next rate decision will be announced this Wednesday, December 14, and market participants eagerly await the decision. Even after the four consecutive rate increases of 75 basis points (bps), several recent economic data releases have been strong enough to convince some that rates will have to go higher […]
Weekly Market Update, December 5, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech last Wednesday in which he stated, “Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases.” […]
Weekly Market Update, November 28, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS After the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s fourth consecutive rate increase of 75 basis points (bps), the recently released minutes from the early-November meeting indicate that most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members could support dropping to a smaller rate hike when they reconvene in December. “A substantial majority of participants judged that a […]
Weekly Market Update, November 14, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised markets last week with headline—which rose 0.4 percent month-over-month against an expected 0.6 percent gain—and core—which rose 0.3 percent month-over-month (excluding food and energy) against an expected 0.5 percent gain—numbers. These results were driven by a decline in prices for used vehicles, commodities, and medical care. […]
Weekly Market Update, November 7, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Last Wednesday brought the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s latest rate decision where it hiked the policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) for the fourth consecutive time. This brought the upper target of the central bank’s rate up to 4 percent for the first time since January of 2008 during the […]